Zeal Without Knowledge

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Zeal Without Knowledge

Post by Ike » Sun Sep 22, 2019 9:58 pm

People believe what they believe is what they say they believe, but I don't believe that.
I believe people what people believe by how they act.
What's the old saying? By their fruits ye show them.
It is a matter of action. It is a matter of commitment.

- J. B. Peterson

I have no problems with the concept that, as a result of human industrial activity over the last 200 years, our CO2 production is having a warming effect on the planet, and that the effects of this are more harmful than beneficial to humankind and the general ecosphere.

I do have a problem with those who make themselves overly obnoxious about it. It seems that there is a ever increase effort to ramp up the tone of the issue. If the rhetoric isn't scary enough, we will ramp up the rhetoric. If we aren't shouting enough, we need to get a bigger megaphone. If you aren't losing sleep over this issue, you should be. According to various American personalities of significant influence, the world will come to an end in twelve (no... eleven) (no... ten) years from now! It's time to repent of your sins. Almost as if by parody, the media will even take your climate change confessionals.

Except, I don't believe these people and their morbid secular religion, because I don't believe they ultimately believe it either.

First, the people who are most determined to save the world from complete destruction are the same people who want to address a whole host of other issues along the way. If we suddenly discovered a giant asteroid on a collision course with the planet in ten years, we wouldn't stop to spend piles of money to enact socialized medicine when we're too busy saving humanity.

Second, we know that the most proactive technology to reduce carbon emissions would be nuclear power. Nuclear power is easily the greenest, safest form of energy on the planet, with a safety record that beats out even solar energy. The people who are the most obnoxious about climate change are the same people who are often opposed to expanding nuclear energy. To prove nuclear power's effectiveness, look no further to France (the most aggresively pro-nuclear nation on the planet) and compare it to Germany (the most aggressively pro wind/solar nation on the planet). Not only do the French pay half as much for their electricity, but their carbon footprint is half that of Germany.

We can also throw in other technologies that have proven extremely effective in curbing carbon production. The development of fracking technologies in the early 2000's have greatly decreased the price of natural gas to the point of phasing out coal via the free markets. Who is opposed to fracking? The same people who are lighting their hair on fire about climate change.

Banning plastic straws or hamburgers will accomplish little-to-nothing to actually help the environment, other than annoying average everyday people who enjoy these things.

In short, I find the zeal behind the climate change hysteria shallow and hollow. I believe anthropogenic climate change is real, but I don't believe it is anywhere near as bad as the zealots claim. Deep breaths are in order.



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Re: Zeal Without Knowledge

Post by GuideToACrazyWorld » Mon Sep 23, 2019 4:33 am

This has been the issue that I have never been able to make sense of when it comes to the Green New Deal. If one believes that the reduction of CO2 output is the most pressing issue to humanity why would someone attach a bunch of economic policies to the attempt to fix this? I simply can't make any sense of it.

@LivingRock had suggested that it is part of a world view that holds that capitalism brought about the issue and the issue can not be addressed without moving on from capitalism. That would at least make senses to me, but I've yet to see any supporters confirm such an idea.

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Re: Zeal Without Knowledge

Post by Delenda Est » Mon Sep 23, 2019 9:32 am

Ike wrote:
Sun Sep 22, 2019 9:58 pm
Except, I don't believe these people and their morbid secular religion, because I don't believe they ultimately believe it either.

First, the people who are most determined to save the world from complete destruction are the same people who want to address a whole host of other issues along the way. If we suddenly discovered a giant asteroid on a collision course with the planet in ten years, we wouldn't stop to spend piles of money to enact socialized medicine when we're too busy saving humanity.
The problem of global warming is a classic example of the Coordination Problem of the Commons. We are in a situation where we are not able to price the ecosystem services that are degraded by economic development; we all draw on them "for free," even though the stress we are putting on them is beginning to compromise them - which, yes, will have disastrous effects on the global ecology (and everything in it, Ahem) in the intermediate-to-long-run. Because right now no costs, at least as understood in terms of the violation of property rights, can be assigned to the degradation of the global ecology, it's difficult to organize our selves to collectively act to try and redress the damage we are doing.

The problem is made worse because of the only general relationship of causes to effect, here: the effect of global warming is analogous to smoking on the human body - it can take many years before it finally becomes fatal, and it is difficult to act decisively, in a coordinated way in the present, against an eventuality that is this remote (and which today's people may not be alive to feel the full brunt of).

If we were smart, we would be collectively responding with the urgency that the matter requires. What we are doing is conducting a completely unprecedented experiment in the history of the planet. There have been times, in the deep past of the Earth, that CO2 ppm has been higher than it is today, and average temps have been warmer. But never in Earth's history has so much CO2 been cranked into the atmosphere in such a tiny sliver of time. We are destabilizing the climate. Already it is a given that certain areas near the equatorial band of the Earth will become virtually uninhabitable by the end of the century, because of punishingly high temperatures.

How much worse can it get? The worst-case scenario is that we have kicked off an irreversible cycle of warming, as UV radiation trapped by the atmosphere leads to rising temperatures, which leads to less ice, less albedo, more water vapor, an intensified greenhouse-effect - and onto less ice, etc. - without limit until the Earth's oceans have boiled away. That's the worst-case. But given that what we are doing is unprecedented, I don't think it can be ruled out.

So again - if we were smart, we would collectively act to try to insure against such an eventuality. But we're not smart. We have very short-term time-horizon for most of our deliberations (this was all we needed, in the Environment of Evolutionary Adaption). We are highly subject to falling into the Problem of the Commons, of collectively acting in such a way that is in our individual interest but against our collective interest.

I think that if we are ever going to be able to organize ourselves to collectively act in time to prevent irreversible damage to the biosphere, we will indeed need to approach the project of climate protection and restoration with a quasi-religious and sacred sense of mission. Religion does retain its power to act on our primate brains to get us to coordinate our actions in ways that are for the long-term welfare of the group, even if not for the short-term benefit of the individual. Religion does this because it acts on our more fundamental, pre-rational, emotional centers of motivation and action. Our reasoning is enough to get us into trouble in areas like Coordinating vis-a-vis the Commons, but a spiritual motivation (for lack of a better term) may be our best route out.

This is why it is foolish and short-sighted to laugh at those who have already arrived at this view, of the importance of collective action to save the biosphere as a matter of an almost religious mission. It's the easiest thing in the world to pose as too clever to go in for that kind of hysteria - when hysteria may be just what is required. What would the rational response be, if an Earth-killer asteroid were on a direct course for Earth, and the response even of many well-informed people was: "I find the zeal behind the Earth-killer asteroid hysteria shallow and hollow. I believe the asteroid is coming, but I don't believe it is anywhere near as bad as the zealots claim. Deep breaths are in order."

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Re: Zeal Without Knowledge

Post by Delenda Est » Mon Sep 23, 2019 9:54 am

GuideToACrazyWorld wrote:
Mon Sep 23, 2019 4:33 am
This has been the issue that I have never been able to make sense of when it comes to the Green New Deal. If one believes that the reduction of CO2 output is the most pressing issue to humanity why would someone attach a bunch of economic policies to the attempt to fix this? I simply can't make any sense of it.
The answer is that while it is easy on a rational level to recognize the long-term threat global warming poses, it is another matter entirely, coordinating the collective action to make the necessary sacrifices to ward against this threat. One way of approaching the matter is bundling action on climate, with projects that are of more short-term interest and more concrete benefit - like reshaping our national infrastructure to be more energy-efficient.

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Re: Zeal Without Knowledge

Post by former_rwd » Mon Sep 23, 2019 12:36 pm

Ike wrote:
Sun Sep 22, 2019 9:58 pm
I do have a problem with those who make themselves overly obnoxious about it. It seems that there is a ever increase effort to ramp up the tone of the issue. If the rhetoric isn't scary enough, we will ramp up the rhetoric. If we aren't shouting enough, we need to get a bigger megaphone. If you aren't losing sleep over this issue, you should be. According to various American personalities of significant influence, the world will come to an end in twelve (no... eleven) (no... ten) years from now! It's time to repent of your sins. Almost as if by parody, the media will even take your climate change confessionals.
Fair enough. I am more of "cut the yelling, look at the data" guy myself - although in this case, the data paint rather unhappy picture.
Ike wrote:
Sun Sep 22, 2019 9:58 pm
Second, we know that the most proactive technology to reduce carbon emissions would be nuclear power. Nuclear power is easily the greenest, safest form of energy on the planet, with a safety record that beats out even solar energy. The people who are the most obnoxious about climate change are the same people who are often opposed to expanding nuclear energy.
The problem of nuclear energy is that while it offers a great economy of the scale up, it doesn't scale down. Nuclear power plants are probably the most expensive power plants to build (offsetted by the massive amount of energy they generate). And the issue of not scaling down means that we either need to invest a whole lot of money into power delivering infrastructure - so much that the efficiency of the whole idea becomes questionable - or become reliant on the geography.

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Re: Zeal Without Knowledge

Post by GuideToACrazyWorld » Mon Sep 23, 2019 1:24 pm

Delenda Est wrote:
Mon Sep 23, 2019 9:54 am
One way of approaching the matter is bundling action on climate, with projects that are of more short-term interest and more concrete benefit - like reshaping our national infrastructure to be more energy-efficient.
That isn't what they are doing. They are attacking climate policy to a complete economic overhaul that they know is highly controversial.

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Re: Zeal Without Knowledge

Post by Ike » Mon Sep 23, 2019 5:51 pm

GuideToACrazyWorld wrote:
Mon Sep 23, 2019 4:33 am
@LivingRock had suggested that it is part of a world view that holds that capitalism brought about the issue and the issue can not be addressed without moving on from capitalism. That would at least make senses to me, but I've yet to see any supporters confirm such an idea.
The title we give the issue is not the actual issue at hand. Whether we are talking about climate change, guns, abortion or a host of other issues, the issue at hand is control and accountability. There are those who hate the idea that of giving the individual agency.

The alarmism behind climate change, however legitimate the actual issue might be, is to gain control over the lives of other people with their own righteous agenda.

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Re: Zeal Without Knowledge

Post by GuideToACrazyWorld » Mon Sep 23, 2019 5:53 pm

Ike wrote:
Mon Sep 23, 2019 5:51 pm
The alarmism behind climate change, however legitimate the actual issue might be, is to gain control over the lives of other people with their own righteous agenda.
I'm not sure that is entirely the case, but it certainly feels that way when looking at some of the proposals.

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Re: Zeal Without Knowledge

Post by Ike » Mon Sep 23, 2019 5:55 pm

former_rwd wrote:
Mon Sep 23, 2019 12:36 pm
The problem of nuclear energy is that while it offers a great economy of the scale up, it doesn't scale down. Nuclear power plants are probably the most expensive power plants to build (offsetted by the massive amount of energy they generate). And the issue of not scaling down means that we either need to invest a whole lot of money into power delivering infrastructure - so much that the efficiency of the whole idea becomes questionable - or become reliant on the geography.
The NRC requires utility to save money for this very purpose. But much like the issue of nuclear waste, we tend to imagine this to be a *much* bigger problem than it really is.

Organizations like Green Peace and the Sierra Club openly brag about how their efforts made nuclear energy more expensive through their tireless efforts during the 70's.

Under more of a free market system where the government is less involved in micromanaging the industry, nuclear energy should be the cheapest source of energy on the planet.

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Re: Zeal Without Knowledge

Post by Ike » Mon Sep 23, 2019 5:57 pm

GuideToACrazyWorld wrote:
Mon Sep 23, 2019 5:53 pm
I'm not sure that is entirely the case, but it certainly feels that way when looking at some of the proposals.
What else would explain their opposition to nuclear power and fracking?

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Re: Zeal Without Knowledge

Post by GuideToACrazyWorld » Mon Sep 23, 2019 6:02 pm

Ike wrote:
Mon Sep 23, 2019 5:57 pm
What else would explain their opposition to nuclear power and fracking?
Fear. It's a powerful toll that can often cloud logic.

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Re: Zeal Without Knowledge

Post by Eryk » Mon Sep 23, 2019 8:24 pm

As stubborn as conservatives seem on this issue, I wonder why climate alarmists are just as stubborn when it comes to abandoning their Green New Deal to get behind efforts that conservatives can agree with.

Ike made a great point:
Ike wrote:
Mon Sep 23, 2019 5:55 pm
Under more of a free market system where the government is less involved in micromanaging the industry, nuclear energy should be the cheapest source of energy on the planet.
If climate alarmists are so serious about the destruction of our planet, why don’t they swallow their pride and put their energy into removing the red tape surrounding nuclear power. Conservatives would have no ideological reason to oppose deregulation.

Another direction is reforestation. Trees filter greenhouse gases and cool the surface temperature. Much easier pill to swallow than telling people they need to change their entire lives because of some magical and mysterious phenomenon called science.

I think the biggest hurdle are the still developing nations in Africa and Asia. It’s not realistic to ask them to curtail their development because our planet is in danger. We should give aid while helping them conserve and expand their forests. Im no ecologist so Im sure this is a complicated issue but ....science...ya know...

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Re: Zeal Without Knowledge

Post by Ike » Tue Sep 24, 2019 1:24 am

Eryk wrote:
Mon Sep 23, 2019 8:24 pm
Another direction is reforestation. Trees filter greenhouse gases and cool the surface temperature. Much easier pill to swallow than telling people they need to change their entire lives because of some magical and mysterious phenomenon called science.

I think the biggest hurdle are the still developing nations in Africa and Asia. It’s not realistic to ask them to curtail their development because our planet is in danger. We should give aid while helping them conserve and expand their forests. Im no ecologist so Im sure this is a complicated issue but ....science...ya know...
I'm aware that reforestation projects are taking place right now across Africa to literally push back the desert.

Most people would be surprised to learn that there are more trees in North America and maybe even the Northern Hemisphere today than there were 100 years ago.

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Re: Zeal Without Knowledge

Post by Eryk » Tue Sep 24, 2019 1:38 am

Ike wrote:
Tue Sep 24, 2019 1:24 am
Eryk wrote:
Mon Sep 23, 2019 8:24 pm
Another direction is reforestation. Trees filter greenhouse gases and cool the surface temperature. Much easier pill to swallow than telling people they need to change their entire lives because of some magical and mysterious phenomenon called science.

I think the biggest hurdle are the still developing nations in Africa and Asia. It’s not realistic to ask them to curtail their development because our planet is in danger. We should give aid while helping them conserve and expand their forests. Im no ecologist so Im sure this is a complicated issue but ....science...ya know...
I'm aware that reforestation projects are taking place right now across Africa to literally push back the desert.

Most people would be surprised to learn that there are more trees in North America and maybe even the Northern Hemisphere today than there were 100 years ago.

Thats good to know. The way I see it, if we can expand our forests, maybe we don’t need to get off fossil fuels.

Interesting story, my parents said that several years ago, their town eliminated a forest and replaced with a solar farm. Kinda seems like a dim witted way to go green. I’ve read articles that this is a problem in Ireland, i think it was Ireland, because they need to meet green energy quotas. So they’re tearing down forests for wind farms.

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Re: Zeal Without Knowledge

Post by Delenda Est » Tue Sep 24, 2019 8:01 am

Ike wrote:
Mon Sep 23, 2019 5:51 pm
The title we give the issue is not the actual issue at hand. Whether we are talking about climate change, guns, abortion or a host of other issues, the issue at hand is control and accountability. There are those who hate the idea that of giving the individual agency.

The alarmism behind climate change, however legitimate the actual issue might be, is to gain control over the lives of other people with their own righteous agenda.
This is ideologicthink, pure and simple. This is an obsession with ideological principle (and more to the point, the political identitarianism associated with that principle) to the direct detriment of our ability to grapple with an immensely urgent practical problem. This is nothing but fiddling while Rome burns...

Dealing with a problem like global warming is a Coordinated-action problem, the fundamental Problem of the Commons. It is a problem which cannot be addressed by the market alone, we need the kind of comprehensive response that only government can coordinate. And I'll tell you what: if we fail to even begin to act on this as the situation calls for, you're not going to like the effect on individual liberty that will come with widespread ecological havoc - from food crises, to natural disasters that will overwhelm the capacity of the economy to handle, to disease vectors, to refugee flows.

So stop nickel-and-diming us with complaints about how environmentalists are not happy with nuclear or with fracking or what have you. Maybe environmentalists will start compromising with you on these matters (they may well have to, as a practical matter) once you begin to acknowledge the real scope of the problem we face and our collective responsibility to take genuine action.

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Re: Zeal Without Knowledge

Post by Cat's Paw » Tue Sep 24, 2019 10:21 am

Global warming:

Occam's razor, mixed with Schrodinger's Cat, and Pascal's wager.
Open the box.
Are the mammals alive inside?
or has the vial of poison been opened?


Sure it pisses people off. ... all done in the name of greedy profit.
Ten commands, Seven deadly sins. Seven beatitudes.

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Re: Zeal Without Knowledge

Post by Cat's Paw » Tue Sep 24, 2019 10:25 am

former_rwd wrote:
Mon Sep 23, 2019 12:36 pm
Nuclear power plants are probably the most expensive power plants to build
The Navy uses them to run ships.

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Re: Zeal Without Knowledge

Post by Cat's Paw » Tue Sep 24, 2019 10:28 am

Worldwide-oil-discovery-and-consumption-from1930-until-the-present-and-projected-future[1].png
Ike wrote:
Mon Sep 23, 2019 5:57 pm
What else would explain their opposition to nuclear power and fracking?
Fracking poisons drinking water, and causes earthquakes.
There is no oil left.
Leave it alone.
Fork. ... we are squeezing sand for drops of oil.

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Re: Zeal Without Knowledge

Post by GuideToACrazyWorld » Tue Sep 24, 2019 10:48 am

Cat's Paw wrote:
Tue Sep 24, 2019 10:45 am
Nope, you don't get to call names here.

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Re: Zeal Without Knowledge

Post by former_rwd » Tue Sep 24, 2019 11:34 am

Cat's Paw wrote:
Tue Sep 24, 2019 10:25 am
The Navy uses them to run ships.
Only when it makes sense to do so - either for the vessels that need a whole lot of energy (such as aircraft carriers) or the vessels that need to be able to run autonomously for very long stretches of time (such as submarines).

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Re: Zeal Without Knowledge

Post by Eryk » Tue Sep 24, 2019 12:27 pm

Cat's Paw wrote:
Tue Sep 24, 2019 10:28 am

Fracking poisons drinking water, and causes earthquakes.
There is no oil left.
Leave it alone.
Fork. ... we are squeezing sand for drops of oil.
So like most of life’s problems, what you’re saying is that this problem will solve itself. Thank god...

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Re: Zeal Without Knowledge

Post by LivingRock » Tue Sep 24, 2019 12:49 pm

Cat's Paw wrote:
Tue Sep 24, 2019 10:28 am
Worldwide-oil-discovery-and-consumption-from1930-until-the-present-and-projected-future[1].png
There is no oil left.
Leave it alone.
Fork. ... we are squeezing sand for drops of oil.
“Peak Oil” theory was a complete bust. That graph is completely inaccurate, specifically, as it really failed to predict the shale revolution in North America. Here’s a more accurate graph of current oil production vs. consumption with a little predicting of its own...
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/image ... chart2.png

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Re: Zeal Without Knowledge

Post by Cat's Paw » Tue Sep 24, 2019 12:55 pm

LivingRock wrote:
Tue Sep 24, 2019 12:49 pm
the shale revolution in North America.
It's like squeegeeing oil absorbent up off the garage floor, and squeezing it to get oil to put in your car.
There is no - oil - remaining on earth.

none

nada

Kaput, schloss, fertig.

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Re: Zeal Without Knowledge

Post by former_rwd » Tue Sep 24, 2019 12:55 pm

LivingRock wrote:
Tue Sep 24, 2019 12:49 pm
“Peak Oil” theory was a complete bust.
Well, peak oil theory appeared when the oil extraction technology was stagnating. It pretty much assumed the stagnation would continue into the future and extrapolated based on that - which is precisely why it busted.

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Re: Zeal Without Knowledge

Post by GuideToACrazyWorld » Tue Sep 24, 2019 1:03 pm

Cat's Paw wrote:
Tue Sep 24, 2019 12:55 pm
There is no - oil - remaining on earth.
water is made up of 4 neon particles and 2 iron particles. Tasty stuff.

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