(Monday PO) After indictment, majority want Trump to drop out, but he's getting stronger with GOP

[GuideToACrazyWorld]

Given his indictment by a federal grand jury in Florida, a majority of Americans say they think former President Donald Trump should drop out of the race for president, according to a new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist survey.

But the opposite is true of Republicans, most of whom not only like him but want him to be president again.
Division over Trump keeps widening

Independent problems: A majority of independents (58%) think Trump should drop out. They have also jumped 9 points — to 50% — in thinking Trump has done something illegal since March, before the New York indictment and the $5 million judgment against Trump for sexual abuse.

A stronger hand with Republicans: At the same time, more than 8 in 10 (83%) of Republicans think he should stay in the race, two-thirds (64%) say Trump is their choice in the GOP primary going forward, and Trump's favorability rating with Republicans and Republican-leaning independents has jumped 8 points since February. Republicans have also gone up 5 points since March in thinking Trump has done nothing wrong, the inverse of the rest of the country.

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Three-quarters of Americans think Trump did something wrong

50% say they believe Trump broke the law, including 78% of Democrats and half of independents. Another 23% say he did something unethical, but not illegal.

50% of Republicans, though, say he did nothing wrong. A third of Republicans think he did something unethical, but not illegal.

Three-quarters of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents like Trump

Trump gets a 76%-19% favorable rating from Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. Even 70% of independents who lean toward the GOP view Trump favorably.

Trump's strongest support in the party is coming from less-educated, lower-income Republicans — and women

He's best liked by whites who didn't graduate from college (85%), those who make less than $50,000 a year (83%), those who live in small towns (83%), GOP and GOP-leaning women (81%) and white evangelical Christians (81%).

There's a clear dichotomy between who says they prefer Trump and who says they'd rather vote for another Republican candidate. These same voter groups are also the most likely to say they support Trump — and not another candidate for the nomination. Trump's main support comes from those who make less than $50,000 a year (78%), those who do not hold a college degree (73%), Republican women (73%) and core Republicans (68%).

His level of support in the primary is weakest with those who graduated from college (49%), Republican-leaning independents (50%) and those who make more than $50,000 a year (54%)

[Tarmaque]

The graphs paint a starker image for Florida Man than the text story above relates. Among Republicans very little has changed, but Cheeto isn't going to win a general election with only Republican voters. What lost him the vote in 2020 was independent voters, and they're turning on him. The Republican establishment is foolish to throw all in on Two-Slices this early. There's various other conservative candidates that have a much better chance against whomever the Democratic candidate ends up being. (I'm not sold on Biden making it to the election, if only for health concerns.) There are a few reasonable conservatives who haven't entered the race simply because they see it as foolish to throw money at a campaign when Kofevfe is the presumptive nominee. DeSantis hasn't a chance, and neither does Haley. Mike Pence? HahahahahhahahahahHahahaha cough cough cough... Tim Scott? Maybe. Chris Christie?

The scary one is Miami Mayor Francis Suarez. He's actually a pretty smart and reasonable Republican who has broke with both D-Trumpy and D-Santis. I don't necessarily agree with him policy wise, but he'd probably be a better President than any of the other conservative candidates and he likely could win a national election against Biden or Harris. Against other potential Democrat candidates I couldn't say. Gretchen Whitmer has declined to run, but if Biden had a stroke tomorrow I wouldn't put money against it. Same deal with Amy Klobuchar and Corey Booker.

[Slip Shod]

Harvard poll on indictment of trump
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https://jonathanturley.org/2023/06/18/h ... motivated/
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I'm sitting here thinking about crazy things -how about a Trump / Robert Kennedy Jr coalition & and even put him on the ticket as vice president

[GuideToACrazyWorld]

The graphs paint a starker image for Florida Man than the text story above relates. Among Republicans very little has changed, but Cheeto isn't going to win a general election with only Republican voters. What lost him the vote in 2020 was independent voters, and they're turning on him.

It gets interesting that in another poll, over 60% of voters wanted Trump to receive a pardon, which is very confusing alongside this poll. I have a buddy convinced that the DNC is pushing so hard against Trump to ensure he wins the primaries because he's the only candidate Biden could beat. He isn't wrong about the results; I'm just not convinced it's been thought through that way.

[Tarmaque]

It gets interesting that in another poll, over 60% of voters wanted Trump to receive a pardon, which is very confusing alongside this poll. I have a buddy convinced that the DNC is pushing so hard against Trump to ensure he wins the primaries because he's the only candidate Biden could beat. He isn't wrong about the results; I'm just not convinced it's been thought through that way.

I keep seeing different polls and different results about this issue, and different diagnosis based on them. It's enough to make me think that pollsters are either being manipulated or are unintentionally dishonest. At best I think our whole method of polling results these days is broken. On both sides. Even FiveThirtyEight has very disparate numbers allowing people to quote the numbers that they like. Like Slip did with his Harvard/Harris poll above. It isn't representative, but aligns with his personal politics. The truth is a lot more complex.

[Slip Shod]

Tar - "The truth is a lot more complex."
~
Quid est Veritas? What is Truth?

[Tarmaque]

In vino veritas.

I should have used "facts" rather than "truth," since the word "truth" has been so horribly adulterated that it no longer has any meaning. This is not a recent thing. It is as old as philosophy.

[GuideToACrazyWorld]

I keep seeing different polls and different results about this issue, and different diagnosis based on them. It's enough to make me think that pollsters are either being manipulated or are unintentionally dishonest.

Trump breaks polls. He has since 2015. People are often afraid to answer honestly when he is concerned because they fear being accosted. The assumptions and reactions to Trump supporters are way over the top. A mixture of shame and fear leads to crazy poll results. This might be the one situation where truly anonymous polling is more accurate.

The truth is a lot more complex.

It normally is.

I should have used "facts" rather than "truth," since the word "truth" has been so horribly adulterated that it no longer has any meaning. This is not a recent thing. It is as old as philosophy.

I'm not sure the word "facts" is any better than the word "truth" today.

[Slip Shod]

It's a circle that brings us back again to what is truth because the fact checkers cannot agree. Twitter was smart enough to outsource their fact checking out to liars pre-Musk

[GuideToACrazyWorld]

It's a circle that brings us back again to what is truth because the fact checkers cannot agree.

Truth is objective reality.