(Friday PO) 5 takeaways from the first Republican primary debate

[GuideToACrazyWorld]

https://www.npr.org/2023/08/24/11955771 ... aukee-2024

Imagine a world in which Donald Trump decided not to run again for reelection.

That's what the audience experienced for about the first 50 minutes of the first Republican presidential primary debate. There had been only fleeting, subtle swipes at Trump in that time. A debate instead broke out on the economy, abortion, crime and, in theory but not really, on climate change.

And you would have thought some guy named Vivek Ramaswamy was the front-runner for the nomination. But then the viewing audience was reminded of reality when moderator Bret Baier of Fox News Channel noted the next segment was going to be about "the elephant not in the room" — to the dismay of the Trump-adoring, and loudly booing, audience.
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"Let's get through this," Baier implored the audience, turning around to plead with them to quiet down.
The viral song 'Rich Men North of Richmond' made its way to the RNC debate stage
Politics
The viral song 'Rich Men North of Richmond' made its way to the RNC debate stage

How did it all turn out and who stood out and didn't? Here are five takeaways:
1. Trump won't likely be hurt by not showing up, but the potential risk was highlighted.

Surprisingly, perhaps, almost all of the candidates stood up for former Vice President Mike Pence and said he did the right thing on Jan. 6 in his ceremonial role in counting and recording the results of the 2020 presidential election.

Pence noted that Trump asked him to reject the votes and "asked me to put him over the Constitution, and I chose the Constitution."

You can imagine that portion of the debate would have gone very differently if Trump was on that stage. The fact that everyone said Pence did the right thing, except Ramaswamy, really has to make Trump seethe, but the fact that the candidates felt like they could also says something.

Trump has a deep well of support among the GOP base and has huge leads in the polls. He likely won't suffer from not being at this debate, but his pride may have just a little in that moment. It's why there's probably a higher likelihood after this debate than before it that Trump shows up to the next one. But anything's possible with Trump.
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2. We have to talk about Ramaswamy.

Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy reacts after a Republican presidential primary debate hosted by Fox News Channel Wednesday in Milwaukee.
Morry Gash/AP

Who would have thought that at the beginning of this primary campaign that after the first GOP primary debate we'd be talking about a previously little-known former tech CEO, who wrote books about "woke" corporate culture.

He's been seen as somewhat of a gadfly, but Ramaswamy has gotten tons of attention and landed himself smack dab in the middle of the debate stage Wednesday night. He commanded attention during the debate as well. He was supremely confident and in the middle of the most heated exchanges.

Watching him, though, it was like watching the rise and metaphoric fall of a campaign in one night. At first, his fast-talking style dominated, but he was grating on the other candidates, and he was on his heels, especially on foreign policy.

"You are choosing a murderer over a pro-American country," former Trump U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley fired at Ramaswamy for his position on the war in Ukraine. She added for punctuation, "You have no foreign policy experience and it shows. It shows."

Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, at one point, blasted him this way: "I've had enough of a guy who sounds like chatGPT."
Our Interview With GOP Presidential Hopeful Vivek Ramaswamy
The NPR Politics Podcast
Our Interview With GOP Presidential Hopeful Vivek Ramaswamy

There is something to that. He did come across like a personification and channeling of the young, right-wing social media posters and podcasters — lots of opinions, but little experience in actually handling the things they're professing expertise about.
3. Most of candidates embraced a pre-Trump "peace through strength" GOP position on foreign policy, but that's not the heart of the party right now.

Yes, Haley and Pence got in their shots on Ramaswamy when it came to the Ukraine-Russia war. It was one of the strongest exchanges of the night for Pence before Haley stole his thunder.

But saying that most of the candidates on this particular stage agreed on a traditional GOP foreign policy, where the U.S. is the moral leader in the world, ignores that the top-three polling candidates in this primary — Trump, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Ramaswamy — feel differently.
Ron DeSantis says backing Ukraine is not in the U.S. interest, a sign of a GOP divided
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Ron DeSantis says backing Ukraine is not in the U.S. interest, a sign of a GOP divided

And that matters. They are channeling many in the base. There's a clear generational divide in this GOP, especially on foreign policy. Trump has pushed this more isolationist, non-interventionist foreign policy, and it's changed the Republican Party in many ways.

Ramaswamy is an eager disciple, and it's a stance that many younger Republicans, who came of age after 9/11 or with little memory of it, echo. They simply don't see the United States as needing to be the moral leader overseas the way the country did for decades after World War II.
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4. DeSantis faded into the background, and Haley sounded like an adult and serious candidate.

Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley speaks during a Republican presidential primary debate hosted by Fox News Channel on Wednesday in Milwaukee.
Morry Gash/AP

Judging solely on speaking time, how he answered questions and the lack of attacks on him, you would never know that DeSantis was the top polling candidate on this stage.

His campaign has been sputtering to this point. Wednesday night was an opportunity to shine out of the shadow of Trump, but instead DeSantis came off as wooden, practiced and awkward. He didn't command the stage the way many Republicans — and powerful donors — might have hoped or expected.

On the other hand, Haley showed some humanity on the issue of abortion and forcefulness on foreign policy. But her campaign has not taken off to this point. She has lagged behind in fundraising and hasn't gained tons of attention since the first few weeks of her campaign.

Despite a strong performance, she will likely still have a difficult time getting the nomination because she seems out of step with the pro-Trump wing of the party. She has to hope that the big donors who thought DeSantis would be the principal alternative to Trump abandon him and go to her.
5. The Trump counter programming didn't seem to work this time.

For once in eight years of GOP politics, Trump didn't command the spotlight.

He thought he was delivering a two-for-one jab with his interview with Tucker Carlson — one in the direction of Fox News since Carlson is no longer with the network, and one at the party establishment.

But Trump's pre-recorded interview with Carlson on the platform X, formerly known as Twitter, didn't quite get him the attention that his veterans "fundraiser" did in 2016 when he skipped another Fox News debate.

It was hardly the split-screen moment he was hoping for.

There was other counterprogramming, or more accurately trolling, going on around the debate — and that was from the Democrats. Pro-Biden ads ran on Fox News before the debate, and, on the ground in Milwaukee, the Democratic National Committee was driving around billboards, leaning into "Dark Brandon," a caricature of Biden with lasers coming out of his eyes that started as a conservative, anti-Biden meme.
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The billboards were leaning into not cutting Social Security, opposing tax cuts for the rich, lowering prescription drug costs and restoring Roe — all solid general-election positions, while GOP candidates, for the most part, are positioning themselves to the right to win a primary.

[GuideToACrazyWorld]

I don't like that people are starting to take Ramaswamy seriously. I'm actually aligned with most of his ideology, but he lacks any concept of execution and sometimes common sense.

[Tarmaque]

Ramaswamy surprised me. I know little or nothing about him until the post-debate wrap ups, but to me he sounds like another Cheeto Mussolini. All bravado and charisma, but no policy experience. However after this experience I suspect that DeSantis is done. He may drag on for a few more weeks, but his star is setting while Ramaswamy's is rising. I'm pretty sure Nikki Haley is primarily positioning herself as a vice presidential candidate. Chris Christie has no chance, and I don't think he even wants it. He just wants a platform to oppose El Donaldo. Hutchinson and Bergum have a chance, but only if all the others die of inexplicable accidents that can't be traced back to them.

I think the fight is between Scott, Haley, and Pence behind Ramaswamy. However I have my doubts that the latter can convince the deep south to support him. Pence has little chance to bring the base around to support him, but one never knows what might happen if de Golfcart gets convicted of one or more of his indictments.

If you'd told me two decades ago that the Republican Presidential Field would feature two candidates of South Asian descent (one of them a woman) a Black Republican, Mike Pence, the guy who pissed off The Mouse, and a quad indicted former President I wouldn't have believed you. But here we are. Thirty years ago Huchinson would be a shoe-in, probably with Pence as his VP.

Fivethirtyeight has numbers that show only Trumpendejo and Hurd losing support after the debate. Surprisingly DeSantis and Haley were the big winners, both of them increasing their support substantially. Ramaswamy increased his support as well, but not as much as Haley and DeSantis. Nikki Haley actually posted the most gains of any of them, while still running behind DeSantis and tRump. That actually shocked me.

Gonna be a long year.

[Slip Shod]

Imagine a world in which Donald Trump decided not to run again for reelection.
- imagine a world where Obama doesn't get a 4th term as President pulling the strings at the White House
- I honestly believe Joe Biden cannot even get himself up in the morning and probably has someone tucking him in at night, most probably an attending nurse

[Slip Shod]

biden's pro criminal policies have got people buying more guns - that's right Joe you fk'n up yourself again
https://headtopics.com/us/nra-biden-s-p ... s-42870612

[GuideToACrazyWorld]

I think the fight is between Scott, Haley, and Pence behind Ramaswamy. However I have my doubts that the latter can convince the deep south to support him. Pence has little chance to bring the base around to support him, but one never knows what might happen if de Golfcart gets convicted of one or more of his indictments.

From what I read Hally came across as the adult in the room. I'm really disappointed with Scott. I think the reasons he appeals to me are the same reason he's the wrong man at this time.

[GuideToACrazyWorld]

- imagine a world where Obama doesn't get a 4th term as President pulling the strings at the White House

Huh???

[Tarmaque]

From what I read Hally came across as the adult in the room. I'm really disappointed with Scott. I think the reasons he appeals to me are the same reason he's the wrong man at this time.

That's what I read too, and I think it shows in the rise in support she got.

That said, after reading some more analysis I think Ramaswamy is the one pulling for a VP position. Everything he said was designed to please Dear Leader.

I agree on Scott. He has appeal to some thinking conservatives, but the Republican Party is not composed of thinking conservatives.

[Slip Shod]

- imagine a world where Obama doesn't get a 4th term as President pulling the strings at the White House

Huh???

biden's administration is really Obama's third.

[GuideToACrazyWorld]

the Republican Party is not composed of thinking conservatives.

<-----IFTFY

[GuideToACrazyWorld]

- imagine a world where Obama doesn't get a 4th term as President pulling the strings at the White House

Huh???

biden's administration is really Obama's third.

That didn't help the confusion at all

[Z is for Zangie]

I don't like that people are starting to take Ramaswamy seriously. I'm actually aligned with most of his ideology, but he lacks any concept of execution and sometimes common sense.

Really? He has a lot of extreme views, very trumplike...and he lies a lot
He also repeats a lot of conspiracies
He also hates the left like almost all right leaning people now
And tells lies about us and Biden

[Z is for Zangie]

biden's pro criminal policies have got people buying more guns - that's right Joe you fk'n up yourself again
https://headtopics.com/us/nra-biden-s-p ... s-42870612

Jesus Slip, give it a fuckin break, I have to read this crap on places I have to be on that aren't friendly, this one is supposed to be friendly
He has NO pro criminal policies he wants to fund the police, he says riots are wrong, etc where do you get this crap

[Z is for Zangie]

Imagine a world in which Donald Trump decided not to run again for reelection.
- imagine a world where Obama doesn't get a 4th term as President pulling the strings at the White House
- I honestly believe Joe Biden cannot even get himself up in the morning and probably has someone tucking him in at night, most probably an attending nurse

Fuck you

If you can't say anything nice about the people you hate, that definitely includes me, shut up

I am done Obama didn;t do any such thing, and Joe is older now, yes, but , he doesn't suffer from dementia nor does he need full time care, he is in much better physical shape than Trump

[Z is for Zangie]

I think the fight is between Scott, Haley, and Pence behind Ramaswamy. However I have my doubts that the latter can convince the deep south to support him. Pence has little chance to bring the base around to support him, but one never knows what might happen if de Golfcart gets convicted of one or more of his indictments.

From what I read Hally came across as the adult in the room. I'm really disappointed with Scott. I think the reasons he appeals to me are the same reason he's the wrong man at this time.

I think he needs some help with retail politicking, everyone that pays attention to this stuff says he was really low key and did poorly

[Tarmaque]

the Republican Party is not composed of thinking conservatives.

<-----IFTFY

You can't fix me! I'm perfect exactly the way I am!

[Slip Shod]

Imagine a world in which Donald Trump decided not to run again for reelection.
- imagine a world where Obama doesn't get a 4th term as President pulling the strings at the White House
- I honestly believe Joe Biden cannot even get himself up in the morning and probably has someone tucking him in at night, most probably an attending nurse

Fuck you ! ! !

W O W .. I took the liberty to add a couple exclamation marks to your passionate outburst. Must have been something I said, I thought it would dress it up - but then again we're talking about undressing

[Z is for Zangie]

Imagine a world in which Donald Trump decided not to run again for reelection.
- imagine a world where Obama doesn't get a 4th term as President pulling the strings at the White House
- I honestly believe Joe Biden cannot even get himself up in the morning and probably has someone tucking him in at night, most probably an attending nurse

Fuck you ! ! !

W O W .. I took the liberty to add a couple exclamation marks to your passionate outburst. Must have been something I said, I thought it would dress it up - but then again we're talking about undressing

I lost my temper...I am so tired of the bashing from everyone, it just perpetuates the hate and anger across the country, and it won't get better till people stop lying, being mean and going all in on conspiracy theories...

You can certainly not agree with policies and not like some politicians, but, that doesn't mean you have to get mean about it...or ascribe behaviors to them that aren't true. The right wing disinformation media with it's obvious drifting it just making it worse...sigh

( Sorry I swore at you, I am just so tired of this stuff...and I have a lot of stress at the moment.)

[Slip Shod]

Fuck you ! ! !

W O W .. I took the liberty to add a couple exclamation marks to your passionate outburst. Must have been something I said, I thought it would dress it up - but then again we're talking about undressing

I lost my temper...I am so tired of the bashing from everyone, it just perpetuates the hate and anger across the country, and it won't get better till people stop lying, being mean and going all in on conspiracy theories...

You can certainly not agree with policies and not like some politicians, but, that doesn't mean you have to get mean about it...or ascribe behaviors to them that aren't true. The right wing disinformation media with it's obvious drifting it just making it worse...sigh

( Sorry I swore at you, I am just so tired of this stuff...and I have a lot of stress at the moment.)

Hey Z, you and me, everybody else we all got triggers, so weez good . But I am one of the most un-mean people walking the Earth, right up there with Tarmac and Mr Guide (how can anyone who loves lizards be mean) or Tarmac (he told me he's never stepped on a bug in his entire life).
Nothing to forgive , far as I'm concerned your 100% kosher. Anywho, do appreciate the F offer, us older fellas don't get propositioned to that much.