(thursday PO) North Carolina lawmakers approve maps creating gains for the GOP in Congress

[GuideToACrazyWorld]

https://www.npr.org/2023/10/25/12080024 ... -districts

North Carolina Republicans gave final approval Wednesday to new political districts that are likely to hand the party more seats in Congress next year.

The state's Democratic governor, Roy Cooper, does not have the power to veto the districts drawn by the legislature's GOP majority.

The new map divvies up the state's 14 congressional districts into 10 districts that favor Republicans, three that favor Democrats and one that is considered competitive between the two major parties, according to analysts.

North Carolina currently has a delegation split 7-7 between Democrats and Republicans, after a court-ordered map was used in the 2022 elections.
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However, in that election, the North Carolina Supreme Court shifted to lean conservative, and the new majority promptly reversed an earlier court ruling that struck down Republicans' map as an excessive partisan gerrymander.
Is drawing a voting map that helps a political party illegal? Only in some states
Elections
Is drawing a voting map that helps a political party illegal? Only in some states

At least three more seats in Congress could be particularly helpful for the GOP. After infighting, the party's conference, with a razor-thin majority in the U.S. House, finally elected a new speaker on Wednesday.

Other redistricting fights playing out in courts and statehouses across the country could also determine the U.S. House results next year.

Additionally, North Carolina Republicans are passing new districts that could solidify their power in the state's General Assembly.

Irving Joyner, a professor at North Carolina Central University School of Law, says the new maps could ensure that Republicans in the state legislature can maintain veto-proof majorities for the next several years.

"What the legislature did was not a surprise to anyone who was in contact with the history or knew the inclinations of this General Assembly," Joyner says. "And so we ended up with pretty much what we had concluded was going to occur here in North Carolina."
North Carolina Republicans enact election changes over Democratic governor's vetoes
Elections
North Carolina Republicans enact election changes over Democratic governor's vetoes

North Carolina has a long history of drawing maps that overwhelmingly favor Republicans, despite the fact that the state's electorate is almost evenly divided between the parties.

In the 2020 election, Donald Trump edged Joe Biden by about 1.3%.

"In some instances, the Democratic vote outpaced the Republican vote," Irving says. "But the way that the lines have been authored over this last decade, it gives an advantage to Republican parties."

It is very likely these new maps will end up in court, but opponents would have to prove the districts were drawn with racial animus. That's because both the North Carolina Supreme Court and the U.S. Supreme Court have now said that partisan gerrymandering is OK.
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Republican state Sen. Ralph Hise said during a redistricting committee hearing earlier this month that his committee specifically decided not to use race in drawing the new maps in an effort "strictly to protect the state from lawsuits alleging illegal racial gerrymandering."

[Tarmaque]

Isn't it funny how Republicans can't seem to keep a majority without cheating on districts? In any case there are a number of other states where such Republican gerrymandering has been overturned by the Supreme Court. Alabama and Louisiana both lost a Republican seat, Florida looks almost certain to lose a Republican seat, Utah of all places looks like it will lose a Republican seat, and Arkansas is set to lose a Republican seat. All due to lawsuits pertaining to illegal redistricting. There's also an uncertain Republican map in South Carolina that seems likely to be ruled invalid by the SCOTUS, but it's a little more iffy. There's also a lawsuit in Texas on the same grounds that could be a 3-4 district loss for Republicans, but apparently it's being slow-walked through the courts with Republicans stalling at every opportunity. While it seems likely Democrats will win this one, it won't happen before the next Presidential election.

Finally there is New York. It's been a mess, which I don't quite understand, which netted Republicans far more seats than they should have. New York's independent redistricting committee (bipartisan) was sued to redraw the map on fair districts. If it's done properly, the Republicans will lose between 4 and 6 seats in New York alone.

My understanding is that on redistricting alone Democrats should pick up between 9 and 12 seats before next year's election. Not counting representatives like Lauren Boebert who seems almost certain to lose and have her seat flipped. By some independent estimations Republicans could lose as many as 30 seats next year. Most of it due to this Speaker debacle, and the rest due to illegal gerrymandering.

Gonna be a fun year.

[Slip Shod]

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[Slip Shod]

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[Slip Shod]

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[Slip Shod]

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